fact or fiction that is the question

I have been watching with some degree of interest the new Australian Government's increasing stance on their carbon emissions trading scheme and plans to "combat" the global phenomena of green house gasses and pollution. There is little doubt that we, as humanity in general, in the ever growing industrialised world, are filling the air with so much crap and pollution such measures are necessary.

However, I am a bit sceptical about the way in which pending increases to the household budget are "released" these days. I smile with sarcasm when I hear a chief economist come on the media and state the gloom of global demand on oil and say we could be looking at $3.00 a litre by Christmas and potentially $8 in the next few years. "Ka-ching" go the cash registers and instantly the oil companies concede to the economists demands.

Hmmm, if you ever wanted to prime a people to accept the increase as inevitable there are few better ways than mentally preparing us by having an economist speculating, who on the surface seems unrelated to the oil crisis, yet who in my pessimistic view is being funded or subsidised for his "opinion". It starts when they are telling us how it could be and then it actually happens - is it too coincidental? I am a conspiracy theorist it would seem. The Saudi oil sheiks last week stated it is not them who is raising the prices, it is the speculators in the futures markets. You know what, they are absolutely correct. But who stands to benefit from those nasty speculators actions? I didn't hear a single media representative at the conference ask a single question along those lines.

Australian consumers have been told that in order for us to properly address this global view we will be taxed and see increases in our fuel, gas, electricity and food to help offset the growing global problem to the tune of $500 per household in the lead up to July 2010 when it will become gospel. Hallelujah - not.

These population figures are estimates used only to provide scale, but Australia has roughly 20 million people, America has 250 million people, India has 1 Billion + people and china has 3 Billion people. How on earth can or will our little contribution make a difference?

Ok yes, we have to start somewhere and why not here? As a mild sceptic on motive relative to result, I think that it is a great way for a government to increase taxes and prices and use the environment as a scapegoat. Australian industry have been asked to work out a plan on what they will use, much of the industry according to the network nine news last night is puzzled, as the criteria given them is vague and measuring or quantifying the data is nigh on impossible. One conglomerate corporate giant is already threatening to pull out 9.6 Billion dollars of investment and capital works projects if the government pushes on with this course of action.

Looking at the countdown to the Olympics due to start in a couple of weeks, we cannot even see the sky in Beijing from the pollution it is that bad. So, the Chinese government are slowing the factories down to try and help clear the air to sanitise the presentation for the worlds media for the duration of the games. I say slowing down, but the ABC reports they are stopping major industry for two weeks before and during the olympics to clear the air hopefully. That is some serious pollution, ah yes but they are promising the biggest fireworks show, so welcome the pollution yet again.

Does China care what we do here? No way on earth. They have become capitalists of the highest order with their industry and products filling the globe, we cannot even see a general agreement in a round table world forum on climate change, according to the UN report I watched being discussed on the National Broadcaster in Australia recently. So what is it all for? I suspect there are motives at play here that reach far beyond my understanding, but I smell a rat somewhere.

I remember an issue I faced with similar pessimism was concerning the secret intelligence George W. had concerning Sadam Hussein and how he was amassing Nuclear weapons in Iraq, and when none were found the excuse by our nations leaders , Americas leaders and England's leaders in the "coalition of the willing" was to assert that we got a dictator and a real bad guy out of power and now the whole world can breathe a little easier. I accept that outcome had some benefits, but it was the pretense and the excuse that caused us to get him in the first place that was flawed and no-one was ever held to account.

Accepted sometimes we get it wrong, I more than most are or have been guilty of that on occasion, but no-one was willing to "Man-up" and say I am sorry. Not that such an expression would change or compensate anyone or anything but all of the aformentioned nations still have a sizable commitment to troop deployments and the ongoing commitment of billions of dollars into this part of the world. Wasn't it Burt Bacharach who raised the question "Who are these people who take control of our lives?"

If I draw a long bow here between the parallels in the climate debate with that of Iraq's experience with Sadam Hussein and then conclude that if after we have been taxed so much more and paid out so much more to find in a coming day and year that it was an error in judgement, but was made to the "best intel we had at the time" will anyone apologise? will anyone ever say that was wrong and then we are going to go back now and cut or return the billions extra we took? If they can speculate for the negative, I am speculating for the positive that they might be wrong.

I think we have embarked on a road that few of us, myself included, really know what's ahead. I feel in a very small way somewhat like Winston Smith in Orwells 1984. I don't wish to sound like a fatalist or paint the world too bleakly, that is just not me, I believe there is sooo much good and sooo much beauty in the world. Yet I have just been asking myself if I am hearing all of the facts, or if such facts on climate change and the data concerning the benefits of taxing every Australian household actually exist, or is it all based on idealogical speculation? a bit of controversy on a Friday morning.
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added this evening.....

I have heard much discussion on talkback radio today concerning these matters I wrote about, quite obliviously to the general opinions of the news today. It would seem that this massive sanctioned tax on Australian households is causing a lot of angst. before it has even been leveled. I make a further conspiarcy theory to suggest that the results will be analysed and disected by a number of other governments to assess international applications.

Interesting also, Qantas, the nations major airline has announced today that they will be making 1500 jobs redundant, 1300 inside the country, Virgin Blue airlines has also announced a 5% airfare increase and a new baggage charge of $8 per piece of checked in luggage up to 23 KG's. They are also claiming to now weigh all hand carry bags as well citing safety guidelines. Sounds like a revenue opportunity to me...did I actually just write that?! Shame on me.

I will watch with a keen interest the unfolding events. There is a general malaise creeping over the retail channel in the country and the panic moves of retailers offering 5 years interest free in the hope that it will give people a reason to spend indicates a lot of straw clutching going on I submit. But like all things in the world there is a cycle and it will get better again soon.